Man and ball: Sub of the day
16:15, 14 Sep 2011
Shane Stapleton
If things go wrong for Dublin or Kerry on Sunday, which team has more to rely on from the bench? We look at the facts and figures from 2009 to 2011...
Is it really not just about the 15 men that start anymore? Of course it’s not, substitutes can make the difference and when looking back over the past three seasons, it is notable that both Kerry and Dublin have used their full compliment of substitutes in most games.
Over the course of three years – and we’ve decided to measure the scoring effect of subs from 2009-11, Pat Gilroy’s tenure – that is bound to decide more than a few games. In 2009, Kerry used 38 replacements in their eight championship games as they won the All Ireland title and 18.6% of their scores came from that sector; that’s an average of almost one in every five scores.
Kerry have lost some influential players in recent years and plenty in the forward line, Tadhg Kennelly and Tommy Walsh being the most obvious names to mention. Indeed Walsh’s introduction against Meath in the All Ireland semi-final of 2009 was quite crucial as his goal, just after the restart, gave Kerry a shot in the arm and his late points pushed them clear. It also earned the Kerins O’Rahilly man a starting place for the final against Cork where he scored 0-04.
When the Kingdom and Dublin last met in that championship season of 2009, the All Ireland quarter-final, Kerry won with 17 points to spare. In terms of substitutes – which mattered little given the gulf between the sides that day – Kerry also edged it by 0-04 to 0-00. Yet that was symbolic of what either team had on the benches in 2009: Dublin got just 6% of their scores from that sector while Kerry had more than triple that.
Barry John Keane was a very effective weapon from the bench in 2010, most notably when his brace of points in extra-time helped Kerry beat Cork in the Munster semi-final.
But Dublin too showed that their bench was improving in 2010. Wexford put up a huge challenge in the Leinster quarter-final and it took the intervention of substitutes to take the game to extra time, and eventually to victory from the jaws of defeat. By the final whistle, more subs had actually got on the scoresheet than starters: Bernard Brogan, Paul Flynn and Conal Keaney for the first XV, with Mossy Quinn, Alan Brogan, Michael Darragh MacAuley and Kevin Nolan chipping in from the bench. The replacements combined for nine points as the Dubs beat the Model County 2-16 to 1-15. Decisive to say the least.
What is evident from the figures below is that Kerry’s bench is dropping in effectiveness, year on year. From 18.6% in 2009 to 12% in 2010, it is currently just 8% in 2011. What’s more, one-third of that has come from a player that most would consider a cast-iron starter and possibly one of the best footballers in recent years, Paul Galvin (pictured).
Even more of a worry for Jack O’Connor – should his first XV falter – is the slowing trend of subs doing enough to turn defeat into a positive result. In 2009, four times from eight games did the replacements contribute to the point of levelling or winning the game (eg Kerry beat Cork by four points – 0-13 to 1-10 – in 2009 with 0-05 coming from the bench). The return was still healthy in 2010 as in two of the five games was the strength of the panel quite evident. In 2011 however, a year when it must be said that Kerry have been winning with relative ease, they have yet to really need their back-up players.
But that dovetails with Dublin’s form from the pine this year. They have just 0-04 from the bench in 2011, to Kerry’s 0-09. Dublin also returned just 1-02 from the bench in 2009 when Kerry steamrollered them so they will hope for a return to 2010 form – 0-21 from seven games – this Sunday. Dublin’s year-on-year return from the bench has been 6% (2009), 16.4% (2010) and just 5% this year so far. That just three players have been able to come on and score this championship season must be a worry for Gilroy, particularly if he needs to inject some impetus from the bench.
And that could be the case for either manager. Considering that between O’Connor and Gilroy, 49 of 50 allowed substitutions have been made this season, the stronger panel could well decide this All Ireland final.
SCORING SUBSTITUTES(blood subs not considered*)
2009 CHAMPIONSHIP
Kerry (38 subs used)
v Cork 0-13 to 1-10 – 0-05 from bench(B Sheehan 0-05, 0-04f)
v Cork 0-12 to 1-17 – 0-03 from bench (Darren O’Sullivan 0-02, D Moran 0-01 ’45)
v Longford 1-12 to 0-11 – 0-00 from bench
v Sligo 0-14 to 1-10 – 0-01 from bench (B Sheehan 0-01f)
v Antrim 2-12 to 1-10 – 0-06 from bench (C Cooper 0-04f, P O’Connor 0-02f)
v Dublin 1-24 to 1-07 – 0-04 from bench (T Kennelly 0-02, P O’Connor 0-02, 0-1f)
v Meath 2-08 to 1-07 – 1-02 from bench (T Walsh 1-02)
v Cork 0-16 to 1-09 – 0-00 from bench
Subs’ contribution 1-21 of 6-111
Scoring subs B Sheehan 0-06 (0-05f); T Walsh 1-02; P O’Connor 0-4 (0-3f), C Cooper 0-04f; Darren O’Sullivan, T Kennelly 0-02 each; D Moran 0-01 ’45
Percentage of season’s scoring 18.6% (24 of 129 points, with goals converted to points)
Dublin (20 subs used)
v Meath 0-14 to 0-12 – 0-00 from bench
v Westmeath 4-26 to 0-11 – 1-01 from bench (T Quinn 1-01)
v Kildare 2-15 to 0-18 – 0-01 from bench (C Whelan 0-01)
v Kerry 1-07 to 1-24 – 0-00 from bench
Subs’ contribution 1-02 of 7-62
Scoring subs T Quinn 1-01; C Whelan 0-01
Percentage of season’s scoring 6%
2010 CHAMPIONSHIP
Kerry (25 subs used)
v Tipperary 2-18 to 2-06 – 0-02 from bench (BJ Keane 0-02)
v Cork 0-15 to 0-15 – 0-02 from bench (BJ Keane, A Maher 0-01 each)
v Cork 1-15 to 1-14 aet – 0-02 from bench (BJ Keane 0-02)
v Limerick 1-17 to 1-14 – 0-02 from bench (M Quirke, D Moran 0-01 each)
v Down 1-10 to 1-16 – 1-00 from bench (D Moran 1-00 pen)
Subs’ contribution 1-08 of 5-75
Scoring subs BJ Keane 0-05; D Moran 1-01, 1-00 pen; A Maher, M Quirke 0-01 each
Percentage of season’s scoring 12%
Dublin (34 subs used)
v Wexford 2-16 to 0-15 aet – 0-09 from bench (T Quinn 0-04, 0-01f, A Brogan 0-02, M MacAuley, B Cullen, K Nolan 0-01 each)
v Meath 0-13 to 5-09 – 0-01 from bench (K McManamon 0-01)
v Tipperary 1-21 to 1-13 – 0-04 from bench (C Keaney 0-03f, E Fennell 0-01)
v Armagh 0-14 to 0-11 – 0-03 from bench (K McManamon, P Flynn, E Fennell 0-01 each)
v Louth 2-14 to 0-13 – 0-02 from bench (P Flynn, T Quinn 0-01 each)
v Tyrone 1-15 to 0-13 – 0-01 from bench (C Keaney 0-01f)
v Cork 1-14 to 1-15 – 0-01 from bench (C Keaney 0-01f)
Subs’ contribution 0-21 of 7-107
Scoring subs T Quinn 0-05, 0-01f, C Keaney 0-05f; A Brogan, K McManamon, E Fennell, P Flynn 0-02 each; M MacAuley, B Cullen, K Nolan 0-01 each
Percentage of season’s scoring 16.4%
2011 CHAMPIONSHIP
Kerry (24 subs used)
v Tipperary 2-16 to 0-11 – 0-00 from bench
v Limerick 1-26 to 3-09 – 0-04 from bench (P Galvin, BJ Keane, D Geaney, D Bohan 0-1 each)
v Cork 1-15 to 1-12 – 0-01 from bench (J O'Donoghue 0-1)
v Limerick 1-20 to 0-10 – 0-01 from bench (J O'Donoghue 0-1)
v Mayo 1-20 to 1-11 – 0-03 from bench (P Galvin 0-02, S Scanlon 0-01)
Subs’ contribution 0-09 of 6-97
Scoring subs P Galvin 0-03; J O'Donoghue 0-02; BJ Keane, D Geaney, D Bohan, S Scanlon 0-01 each
Percentage of season’s scoring 8%
Dublin (25 subs used)
v Laois 1-16 to 0-11 – 0-01 from bench (T Quinn 0-01)
v Kildare 1-12 to 1-11 – 0-00 from bench
v Wexford 2-12 to 1-12 – 0-02 from bench (K McManamon, R McConnell 0-01 each)
v Tyrone 0-22 to 0-15 – 0-00 from bench
v Donegal 0-08 to 0-06 – 0-01 from bench (K McManamon 0-01)
Subs’ contribution 0-04 of 4-70
Scoring subs K McManamon 0-02; T Quinn, R McConnell 0-01 each
Percentage of season’s scoring 5%
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