09:00, 15 Sep 2011
Kevin Donnellan
It’s finally here, 20 weeks after the year’s first Championship first throw in, 52 weeks after the last All-Ireland, 104 weeks since Kerry’s last appearance at this stage and 832 weeks since Dublin made it here. Oh, and 1,352 weeks since the two teams last met in September. Which is all a round about way of saying that we’re looking forward to this match. The hype machine may be working overtime this week, but it still seems to be struggling to overtake expectation.
The one fly in the ointment (for non-Kerry folk anyway) is that it’s hard to find compelling stats to suggest a tight game this Sunday. If you look at overall history, well, no team is going to be able to match the Kingdom. Try to match up the players and the medals in Kerrymen’s pockets tend to make a decisive difference in any judgement. So we have forgotten about history and stuck with our formula from the past number of weeks; where all that matters are the games that got you here. Five matches each, five wins.
Starting with scoring and Kerry have far outstripped Dublin. The low, low scoring against Donegal is a factor but Kerry’s average of 23 points (in total) has been impressive. They have been incredibly consistent with their last two games producing the same tally (1-20). The goals have come consistently for Kerry too, after two in their opener against Tipp it has been one per game since. In contrast, Dublin haven’t found the net since leaving Leinster.
The stats for scores conceded are interesting. While Kerry have conceded more on average per game they have conceded less when just points are taken into account. Dublin have been tighter in the full back line, allowing just two goals this Championship. The five goals conceded by Kerry may give Dublin supporters slight hope, but it should be noted that two of those goals, against Limerick, came when the match was effectively over.
Both sides have been consistently getting in and around four points a match from the placed ball, though Kerry have been a little sloppier in giving up pointable placed balls; conceding 15 points to Dublin’s 10. Kerry have conceded one penalty so far, while Dublin haven’t seen a penalty at either end of the field yet.
Both sides seem equally confident in the strength of their benches; both using their full complement of substitutes on all but one occasion. But Kerry have spread the wealth in terms of scorers that bit more, on average over nine Kerry names appear on the score sheet, compared to Dublin’s six.
And that naturally extends to scores from midfield and defence, Kerry can generally expect three or four point from play coming from numbers two through nine. Dublin, on the other hand, seem more forward reliant; only two points coming from their eight and nine over five matches. And James McCarthy’s goal versus Wexford remains the only score to come from the Dublin back six.
So, as with ancient and more recent history, the tale of this Championship tells is that Kerry look stronger than Dublin. Variables, like the opposition played, comes into it as well of course, but enough stats seem to favour the Kingdom to make their favourites status seem correct.
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Dublin
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Kerry
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Matches Played
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5
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5
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Wins
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5
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5
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Losses
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0
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0
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Total Scored (all averages over five matches)
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16.4
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23.0
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Total Conceded
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12.2
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13.4
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Points Scored
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14.0
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19.4
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Points Conceded
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11.0
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10.6
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Goals Scored
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0.8
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1.2
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Goals Conceded
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0.4
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1.0
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Frees Scored (inc 45s)
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4.2
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4.0
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Free Scored Against
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2.0
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3.0
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Penalties Won
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0.0
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0.20
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Penalties Conceded
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0.0
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0.20
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Subs Used
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4.8
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4.8
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Number of Scorers For
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6.0
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9.4
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Number of Scorers Against
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5.0
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6.4
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Scores by Defenders (from play)
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0.6
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2.0
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Scores by Midfielders (from play)
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0.4
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1.6
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Red Cards (total)
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2
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1
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