Stats that: Recovering from a provincial final loss in the qualifiers
11:40, 21 Jul 2011
Kevin Donnellan
It has been one of the biggest arguments against the qualifiers, the fact that counties who have lost their provincial final quickly getting turfed out the back door as well.
The theory loosely holds that the trauma of losing a final will hit a team harder than any other provincial loss. With the teams coming through from the qualifiers now enjoying a bit of momentum the losing finalists are there for the taking. It’s a neat enough theory but is it true?
Well on balance…yes. In the 10 years of qualifiers the provincial runners-up have lost their next match out more often then they have won. Of the 40 ties that have been played in the final round of qualifiers the losing provincial finalist has progressed only 14 times. Connacht sides have the worst record here with only two sides recovering from a Connacht final defeat to play a meaningful part in the Championship.
Provincial Final Losers: The Next Day Out.
|
|
Played
|
Win
|
Loss
|
Win %
|
|
Munster
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
40%
|
|
Leinster
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
40%
|
|
Connacht
|
10
|
2
|
8
|
20%
|
|
Ulster
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
40%
|
|
Total
|
40
|
14
|
26
|
35%
|
Even surviving that first post-defeat match doesn’t cure all ailments. Eight of the 14 ‘survivors’ ended up going out in the very next match. And only four out of 40 have reached an All-Ireland final.
It could be that they draw a weak qualifier in Round 4 only to be exposed by the same frailties that did for them at provincial level when they reach the quarters (see Kildare 2009). Or it could be a team throwing caution to the wind and pulling off a shock before again succumbing to old frailties later on (see Laois 2005).
Fate of Provincial Losers
|
Winners
|
5%
|
|
Losing Finalists
|
5%
|
|
Semi-Finalists
|
5%
|
|
Quarter-Finalists
|
20%
|
|
Qualifiers
|
65%
|
The identities of teams who have properly picked themselves up after losing a final isn’t hugely surprising. Cork and Kerry feature prominently. Such is the frequency of their encounters a loss for either is never going to completely knock the stuffing out of them.
Tyrone famously recovered from losing narrowly to Armagh in 2005 to win Sam. The only major surprise package has been Wexford, who bounced back from a Leinster Final defeat in 2008. History to repeat itself this year?
Who Has Beaten The Curse?
|
Winners
|
Tyrone (’05) Kerry (’06)
|
|
Losing Finalists
|
Cork (’07) Kerry (’08)
|
|
Semi-Finalists
|
Cork (’05) Wexford (‘08)
|
|
Quarter-Finalists
|
Dublin (‘01) Donegal (’02, ‘06) Sligo (’02) Laois, Mayo (’05) Monaghan (’07) Kildare (‘09)
|
There hasn’t been any major rhyme or reason to how the losers have fared from year to year. 2003, 2004 and 2010 saw the provincial runners-up getting whitewashed in the qualifiers. 2005 was the only year they all won through. The rest of the time it’s generally one or two sides surviving the cull.
|
Year
|
Success of Provincial Final Losers
|
|
2001
|
1/4
|
|
2002
|
2/4
|
|
2003
|
0/4
|
|
2004
|
0/4
|
|
2005
|
4/4
|
|
2006
|
2/4
|
|
2007
|
2/4
|
|
2008
|
2/4
|
|
2009
|
1/4
|
|
2010
|
0/4
|
Got enough facts there? One last one. In the history of the final round of qualifiers there has not been one draw. Limerick pushed Cork to extra time last year but that was it. That means (depending on your thinking) that the draw is never going to happen at this point or we’re due…
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